J Fox Insights

As of February 13, the US military had shot four flying-objects out of the skies over North America in 2023. This included a balloon that US authorities insist was used for espionage, and several other aircraft which may have been used by hobbyists and meteorologists. 

US President Joe Biden embarked on something of a victory lap following the first balloon’s downing, claiming that he was ready to act when China threatened the US’s sovereignty. “Make no mistake about it: as we made clear last week, if China threatens our sovereignty, we will act to protect our country. And we did,” Biden said in his State of the Union address. 

However, the purge of these objects has raised questions. To start, unnamed officials have suggested that this is not the first time unmanned Chinese aircraft have been spotted above the US – it happened three times under Donald Trump and once earlier in the Biden administration. So, why is this the first time these UFO – as the US military refers to them as – have been taken out of North American skies? 

Equally, there are questions as to whether China has been accelerating its espionage programme. Some analysts have suggested that the programme has been boosted in the context of heightened geopolitical tensions. Other commentators have inferred that China may have deliberately sought to scupper a reproachment between Beijing and Washington. These analysts suggest a détente may no longer be in Xi Jinping’s interests. 

What do we know?

On February 4, a suspected Chinese spy balloon was downed off the coast of South Carolina. The balloon’s first reported sighting was on February 1, 2023, when civilians in a commercial airliner spotted the flying object. However, it had entered US airspace on January 28 over the Aleutian Islands – in Alaska – before entering Canadian airspace, and then onto the US mainland. 

On February 2, US and Canadian authorities said they were aware of the aircraft – believed to belong to China – and that NORAD had been tracking it. It had hovered over the US for several days, but the military did not want to shoot it down over land as the debris could cause damage. Biden said he deferred to the military for their recommendation before ordering it to be shot down. 

The American and Canadian militaries asserted that the balloon was for surveillance purposes and linked the airship to a “vast surveillance programme” initiated by the People’s Liberation Army Air Force, operating partly out of Hainan province on China’s southern coast. 

The Chinese government claimed that it was a civilian meteorological research airship that had blown off course. The debris was taken to an FBI facility, and declassified information from an American U-2 reconnaissance aircraft deployed to track the balloon suggested that the balloon’s characteristics – it contained powerful signalling equipment among other things – and its flight path were inconsistent with a meteorological mission. 

The signalling equipment, the US claim, is capable of tracking communications devices including mobiles and radars. The wider programme, according to the Pentagon, was a Chinese military-directed surveillance effort targeting more than 40 nations across five continents. 

Later, a US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the original trajectory of the balloon would have taken it over Guam and Hawaii but it had been blown off course by prevailing winds. It was also reported that the balloon had been tracked by US authorities when it took off from Hainan Island near China’s south coast. 

However, after the first incident, three further high-altitude objects were shot down by American fighter jets in as many days. Little is known about the latest airships to be taken down. The last object was downed over Lake Huron in Michigan at 2.42pm local time on Sunday on Biden’s orders. One balloon is believed to belong to US hobbyists – an airship belonging to the Northern Illinois Bottlecap Balloon Brigade is “missing in action”. 

With this in mind, let’s take a closer look at the event, and its potential consequences, with the help of some international experts. 

Had it become politically untenable to not shoot it down?

As we know, the first balloon to be shot down had travelled over a substantial area of the US and Canada before it was seen by civilians. At this point, the whereabouts of the airship became widely known, and calls grew for the military to shoot it down. In response to questions regarding the situation, on February 4, Biden said, “We’re going to take care of it.” The aircraft was eventually downed after passing over the Atlantic coast. So, why was this airship shot down? 

We put this question to our experts, who gave the following responses. 

Bill Hayton, Associate Fellow, Asia-Pacific Programme, Chatham House

“Yes. By the time it was being photographed by civilians in Montana, what else could be done?”

Natasha Lock, China expert and PhD researcher at the Lau China Institute

“It must’ve been a tense day in the White House office deciding whether to shoot it down over US territory or let it stay four more days until it goes over the sea. The problem was, if they’d shot it down over US territory, while quickly getting rid of the issue, it would’ve been a nightmare if someone on the ground was hit by the debris — for who would be to blame for the death? China? Or the US? There’d have been a lot of finger pointing for sure!”

The event also raises questions as to why previous suspected spy balloons had not been shot down. However, there are several unknowns here. We don’t have confirmed reports that there were other Chinese balloon to enter US territory in previous years. Moreover, if these other airships did exist, they could have been shot down. We just may have not heard about it. After all, would we know about these recent events if the balloon had not been spotted by civilians. 

Was Biden’s victory parade warranted?

The first balloon crossed into US territory on January 28, and its position was known to American and Canadian authorities. So, the question must be raised, why did the aircraft only become problematic when it had been seen by citizens and after it had passed through Canada? Why was the balloon not addressed earlier?

It has been suggested that removing the balloon from the skies over land could have been dangerous. But it was also noted by Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer that “the bottom line here is that shooting down the balloon over water wasn’t just the safest option, but it was the one that maximized our intel gain.”

However, Republicans have been quick to dispute any notion that the balloon’s downing could be considered a win in the context of the country’s great-power rivalry with China. Republican congressman Mike Turner suggested that the balloon’s path had taken it near a large proportion of the US’s sensitive military and nuclear sites. “The satellite had completed its mission,” Turner stated. This is not far from the truth as the following NBC-produce map shows. 

Meanwhile, an unnamed US official told The Washington Post that the airship loitered over sensitive locations. It is true, the official stated, that the balloon followed the jet stream, but it was clearly equipped with the technology to allow it to hover when collecting data.

Politics or a genuine threat? 

There are several arguments, posed by members of opposition, that suggest Biden had been too weak on China, and this prompted Beijing to launch a campaign of espionage against the US. Naturally, this is hard to prove, and several commentators would suggest that the Biden administration has not been weak on Chinese issues. 

China expert and columnist Tom Fowdy doesn’t see it that way. He argues that this balloon saga has been blown out of proportion by the US government as part of a broader trend to coerce its allies to remain tough on China. This could be seen in the context of the EU’s reported attempts to normalise relations with Beijing. 

Tom Fowdy, Editor, Writer, Columnist. As featured in RT, and The Global Times

“My thoughts are that the United States weaponized the balloon saga as part of its trend of creating mass hysteria, panic and fear of all things China which is amplified and reinforced by the mainstream media. The choice to go public with that information was a political choice, as evidenced by the Trump administration’s reluctance to do so. In controlling public discourse and narratives with such, the US aims to co-opt greater influence on its allies to contain China, while legitimating further sanctions with the objective of targeting Chinese technology companies, and setting the geopolitical stage for greater militarisation around China’s periphery.”

Fowdy’s perspective isn’t widely share among the intelligence community. We spoke with Dr Alex Bristow, Deputy Director Defence, Strategy & National Security

Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI). He directed us to quotes in his recent report, which broadly highlights China’s increasingly sophisticated use of balloons and near-space for intelligence gathering. ASPI contend that Chinese airships of this nature pose a genuine threat to US security. 

“Beijing’s spy balloon is a clear example of an emerging technology developed for military and intelligence operations but that crucially evolved out of civilian and scientific programs. (…) Open-source documents and media reports about China’s balloon-technology programs contain sober lessons about Beijing’s incremental acquisition of foreign intellectual property and its technology partnerships with Western research institutions.”

What does all this mean for Sino-US relations?

Biden had been working to establish a “floor” for Sino-US relations. There had been repeated talk of creating a state in which there was competition without conflict, with Washington to continue to push Beijing on issues relating to Taiwan and human rights. But what are the broader consequences of Biden’s airship purge? Let’s take a look at what the experts said.  

Maria Siow, Senior Asia Correspondent, South China Morning Post 

“Even though only one of the objects is a Chinese balloon, the incident as well as the suspicion that this has raised will continue to bedevil US-China relations in the immediate months ahead. Blinken’s trip to China is unlikely to take place in the next 3-6 months. The incident has also highlighted the extremely fragile and fraught relations between the US and China right now where both sides have openly admitted that there is no direct military contact between them. The dangers this would pose is imaginable, especially in the event of aerial and naval accidents, or worse, miscalculations.”

Haitong Du, Research and MPhil, University of Oxford

The downing of the alleged Chinese spy balloon reflects how far U.S.-China relations have deteriorated over the past few years. What worries me the most is not the balloon’s intrusion of U.S. airspace, but rather how neither side seemed willing to take a step back. The Washington Post recently reported that the U.S. intelligence community had been tracking the balloon since its launch. Some U.S. analysts think it is possible that “China didn’t intend to penetrate the American heartland”. Therefore, an unexpected series of weather conditions gave rise to the “perfect storm” amidst growing tensions between the two superpowers.

A pressing long-term issue standing in the way of détente will be the increasingly bellicose political rhetoric of Beijing and Washington. For Biden’s critics, any response short of downing the balloon would be castigated as “being soft on China”. Thus, salvaging the president’s domestic reputation would inevitably antagonize the Chinese. Likewise, from the perspective of domestic nationalists, it would be unwise for Beijing to cave in to the U.S. by issuing an apology. At present, neither political system allows for any flexibility. Thus, the balloon downing is a testament to the degree of risk associated with U.S.-China relations.

We also spoke to China expert Peter Humphreys – a victim of wrongful imprisonment by the Xi regime in 2013-2015 after being accused of illegal information gathering in Shanghai, a charge that he denied. Humphreys also referenced a meeting between Blinken and Beijing’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, on Saturday 18, February, in Munich. The two parties met late on the Saturday, but the meeting did not bear fruit. Blinken said Wang refused to apologise for the overflight of the balloon. He also contended that China was close to supplying Russia with “lethal support” for its deadly war in Ukraine. 

Here’s what Peter Humphreys had to say. 

Peter Humphreys, a sinologist and external research affiliate of Harvard University’s Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies.

“The spy balloon incident was a major blow to any long-term improvement in US-China relations all by itself. It woke up not only America, but most of the world. But then Blinken’s clash with China’s foreign policy chief, Wang Yi, at the Munich security conference was a second major incident which has sent relations to a new nadir with little hope of recovery for years to come.

Blinken, although calling for better ties, engaged in further recriminations with Mr Wang over the spy balloon, and then went on to accuse China of planning to arm Russia against Ukraine. Wang responded with unusually harsh words. So, this meeting actually took the relationship backwards, not forwards.

I do not believe there is any possibility to improve relations with China so long as dictator Xi remains in power. An improvement might come if we see a change of leadership in Beijing but that could be a long time off. In the meantime, Xi’s obvious xenophobia, racism and aggressive stance towards the West will not go away, so things will just continue to get worse.

In these circumstances, to think of wider common interests, such as climate change, pandemics, global trade, that may lead China and the US into some kind of détente is pie is a pipe dream. It is not going to happen.”

If China wants to hand out an olive branch at some point, a good one would be the release of up to 300 Americans who are detained and imprisoned in China without having fair and transparent trials.”

We also heard from Christian Shepherd, a China correspondent at The Washington Post. He underlined that there are several fundamental challenges to a rapprochement beyond the balloon purge. 

Christian Shepherd, China correspondent at The Washington Post.

“The discovery this month of a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon above the continental United States – and its later downing by an F-22 Raptor – is a significant setback for the bilateral relationship. This is not primarily because of the specifics of the incident – spying is standard practice – but because of what the fallout revealed about the inability for both sides to de-escalate.

The specifics of why the balloon ended up on its highly visible trajectory remain murky, but the prevailing theory is that it was accidental. From the Chinese perspective, the huge amount of interest and the strong reaction from the United States, including canceling Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Beijing and sanctioning a number of Chinese companies, was an overreaction. Initial contrition very quickly gave way to strong statements threatening reprisals, although that may have mostly been bluster for domestic consumption.

For the United States, a huge white Chinese-made globe drifting across the skies of Montana was inexcusable behavior, whether or not it was intentional. The Chinese response also failed to defuse concern, in part because it was immediately dismissed as not credible. United States officials quickly started to brief journalists about what they consider an extensive program of high-altitude surveillance balloons pursued by China.

The fundamental issue is a complete lack of trust. A number of reports suggest that attempts at back-channeling failed entirely. Even though both sides have stated that they desire to get the relationship back on track, they were unable to avoid the incident derailing a meeting with the potential to put in place the “floor” or “guardrails” that the United States wants. China, too, has signaled its desire for a detente. But neither side is willing to accept blame for the dramatic deterioration in ties.

One reason for the deadlock raised by scholars and think tankers involved in track two discussions is that Beijing and Washington have different ideas about how to fix the relationship. The United States is pushing for emergency communication mechanisms and other tools to avoid an unexpected incident escalating. For China, the reset needs to be built upon a restatement of foundational principles, especially over the U.S. position on Taiwan. That’s a non-starter in D.C. And Beijing fears that prioritizing crisis management will encourage the U.S. to be bolder in the Taiwan Strait and South and East China Seas.

The balloon incident primarily demonstrates the huge amount of heavy lifting involved in just breaking the current impasse and getting to the starting line of improved relations.”

Final thoughts

Since the saga began, we’ve seen China reaffirm its commitment to Moscow. This could be seen as immediate and material consequence of the balloon purge. In recent years, China and Russia have taken steps to enhance their relations, despite reports that Beijing was concerned by Moscow’s war in Ukraine. However, on February 21, China’s top diplomat told one of President Vladimir Putin’s closest allies that Beijing’s relationship with Moscow was “rock solid”. Wang said that their ties would withstand any test in a changing international situation. 

In the context of turbulent February for Sino-US relations, we could see this pledging of ties between Beijing and Moscow as another consequence of Biden’s decision to shoot down the spy balloon. What impact will it have going forward? That’s hard to tell, but Wang’s pledge came as the US said it was concerned that Beijing might be considering supplying weapons to Russia a year since the invasion of Ukraine. Biden’s balloon purge could be creating fresh challenges for the US and its allies.